After profits in the last two Signature Events, including a second place finish at Pebble Beach, hopefully we can land some more in this latest one.

It’s a limited 72-man field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where there will be a cut.

The low 50 plus ties or anyone within 10 of the lead make it to the weekend.

Not getting all six players through to the last 36 holes cost me in last week’s Cognizant Classic which was frustrating – especially for my team which featured runner-up Shane Lowry as captain.

If you’re new to the game, a quick reminder that among your six picks, the Captain and Underdog (UD) – the cheapest player in your line-up – both score x1.25pts. They’re key.

Bay Hill, a 7,466-yard par 72, is a tough course and only twice in the last seven years has Augusta National had a higher winning score.

Once again, we need to decide whether to pay the big bucks for Scottie Scheffler and build a team around him or pass him by for a more balanced line-up.

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Okay, let’s start building…

Top Tier Picks (18M and over)

Scottie Scheffler (28.4M): He puts a big hole in the budget once more but Scheffler is a hard man to leave out at Bay Hill. He won here in 2022 and 2024 so likes an even-numbered year while his three other finishes show fourth, 11th and 15th. Despite being possessed by ‘average golfer demons’ in recent round ones, he’s still followed his season-opening win at The American Express with finishes of 3-4-12 while he’s recorded positive SG: Putting figures in all four 2026 starts.

Rory McIlroy (23.2M): For over 5M cheaper, you can add the captain’s armband to Rory. And it’s a more than justifiable move. McIlroy’s 11 Bay Hill starts include a win, a second, a fourth, a fifth, a sixth, nine top 15s overall and nothing worse than 27th. With his iron play sharpened up by a return to blades (top four for SG: Approach in last two starts), McIlroy has momentum after following a 14th at Pebble with a second place at Riviera.

Others to consider: Tommy Fleetwood (20.8M) is starting to find his late-season 2025 groove again after fourth at Pebble Beah and seventh at the Genesis. His driving looks strong and his short game sharp while the Englishman has five top 20s at Bay Hill including third in 2019 and 11th last year. Compatriot Matt Fitzpatrick (19.6M) will rightly have high ownership this week due to his four top 10s at Bay Hill (including a runners-up finish), three straight top 25s on the PGA Tour and eyecatching ball-striking figures. His putting is a potential problem though (minus SGP figures in all four 2026 starts). Russell Henley (18.8M) loves a tough test and returns as defending champion. Also fourth in 2024, he has three top sixes in his last five Florida starts and an eighth and two other top 20s in four starts this season. Cameron Young (18.2M) started hitting it really well again when seventh at Riviera (9th Off The Tee, 5th Approach) and made the top 15 in his first two Bay Hill starts (2022 and 2023).

Mid-Range Value Selections (14.2M up to 18M)

Shane Lowry (16.2M) will be seen as a risk after throwing away victory at last week’s Cognizant Classic. But beyond a couple of crazy holes at the finish he played beautifully and his second place followed eighth at Pebble and a top 25 at Riviera. At Bay Hill he’s finished seventh and third in the last two editions. Many will be put off in the belief that his head won’t be right but that offers a chance to cash in on a much reduced ownership if you’re prepared to take a gamble. I am.

Jason Day (15.4M) makes plenty of appeal at the lower end of this price range. The Aussie lived next to Bay Hill when first moving to America and his strong record at Arnie’s place shows a win (2016), top 10s in 2023 and 2025 and seven top 25s overall. He was a runner-up at The American Express in late January and 24th at Pebble while he always putts these fast Bermuda greens well.

Others to consider: Harris English (17.8M) is ‘Mr Consistency’ so far 2026 after finishes of 27-22-28-24-22. Twice a runner-up in majors last year, he was second here in 2023 and also made the top 10 in 2020. Rickie Fowler (16M) is enjoying another upswing in form via three top 20s and a 28th this season. The Californian was third here in 2013 and has made his last nine Bay Hill cuts. Keegan Bradley (15M) is very much course horse material. The 2025 US Ryder Cup captain was fifth last year and has only been outside the top 11 once in the last five editions. Go over a decade back and you’ll also find a pair of top threes. A 29th at Pebble two starts ago and some good golf in recent TGL matches suggest he can thrive again. Jordan Spieth (14.8M) didn’t play here until 2021 but he clicked immediately, finishing fourth on his first two visits. In four starts this season, he has a 24th at the Sony and a 12th last time at the Genesis Invitational and watch out for that hot putter (2nd and 3rd for SG: Putting in his last two starts). Jake Knapp (17.2M) simply has to be mentioned due to his ridiculously good start to the season: 11-5-8-8-6. He had to settle for 57th on his only Bay Hill visit in 2024 but, overall, he seems pretty good at Florida golf with three top sixes and a 12th in his last seven starts in the Sunshine State.

Underdog Options (14M and Under)

Sahith Theegala (14M) has to be a real Underdog (UD) candidate here. He’s 6-for-6 this season, with two top 10s and two other top 25s. After the struggles of an injury-hit 2025, it’s great to see and at Bay Hill he’s also performed well with sixth in 2024 and 14th in 2023.

Corey Conners (13.6M) is a course specialist and his run of five straight top 25s here is bookended by a pair of top threes in 2021 and 2025. The Canadian has also finished 8-6-3 in his last three Florida starts. Conners hasn’t found much this season but he’s 3-for-4 with 24th at the Sony Open and 37th at Riviera where he shot par or better on all four days.

Others to consider: Ryan Fox (13.4M) has made a strong start to his 2026 PGA Tour campaign with top 25s at Phoenix and Pebble Beach and then a jump to seventh at Riviera. His only Bay Hill start produced an encouraging 14th place in 2023. Keith Mitchell (13.8M) is another great option if trying to balance up a Scheffler-led team. The man with the visor has a fifth and a sixth in his perfect 5-for-5 Bay Hill slate and kicked off the Florida Swing with sixth at the Cognizant. He’s realiable too: since October 2025 Mitchell has made all nine of his cuts. For an enabler, how about Michael Kim (12.4M), who was fourth here last year and 17th in one of his other two Bay Hill starts. Although he disappointed in three California events, 18th in Phoenix was a decent knock.

That’s this week in the books from a fantasy perspective.

Now to check out the revamped and much-boosted FanTeam Sportsbook.

Let’s have a couple of bets too.

First, I like Rickie Fowler for a Top 20 at 2.45.

Fowler has three of those in four starts this season and even in the down years he’s always made the cut at Bay Hill (best finish third).

With his putter looking good, a top 20 seems a very reasonable ask.

Last week’s 72-hole match bet landed and this week I’ll back Cameron Young to beat Si-Woo Kim in a 1.92 pick ’em.

Kim has cooled a little (45th and 34th last two starts) after his red-hot start to the season and Bay Hill is hardly his favourite course. He’s broken 70 just once in 31 rounds there and has a best finish of 19th.

Young, by contrast, is hitting form (seventh last time) and boasts a 10th and a 13th in his four API starts.

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