Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was a frustrating one for many fantasy players with Jake Knapp withdrawing on the eve of the tournament and Rory McIlroy pulling out at halfway.
The latter news hurt me in the £10 game as I’d captained Rory in both my line-ups.
One of those limped into profit which was a minor pleasant surprise but, as all fantasy players know, you need to get all six golfers playing 72 holes to land the big prizes.
And so to TPC Sawgrass where pulling that feat off is far from easy.
Even the elite players have missed cuts sprinkled on their Players Championship CVs as the course can be extremely punishing if anything is slightly off.
If you’re new to the game, a quick reminder that among your six picks, the Captain and Underdog (UD) – the cheapest player in your line-up – both score x1.25pts.
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have won four of the last six editions of this event but Scheffler has slipped to 12th and 24th in his last two starts (recording negative Approach numbers in both which is unheard of) while Rory is still nursing a bad back so said he’d only turn up on the eve of the tournament.
McIlroy’s ownership will be way down as a result so if you fancy taking the gamble…
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Top Tier Picks (18M and over)
Collin Morikawa (19.6M): The Californian’s superb ball-striking gives a real layer of comfort for anyone siding with him on this course. He’s made four of five cuts, posting 10th and 13th in two of the last three. But just as appealing is his current form. Morikawa won at Pebble Beach and has since added seventh at Riviera and fifth at Bay Hill. His Approach numbers are elite as expected while he’s also gained strokes with the putter in his last two events which is the absolute clincher.
Viktor Hovland (18.2M): Opinion on him will be far from unanimous this week but Hovland could definitely be worth the risk. He was 13th at Bay Hill last week (14th Approach, 6th Putting) and prior to that he’d cracked the top 10 in six of his last 12 starts in Florida. Two of those were third and ninth at Sawgrass. If he gets in contention, Hovland tends to stay there so there’s lots to like.
Others to consider: Obviously Scottie Scheffler (28.4M) and Rory McIlroy (23.8M) could still be big factors but, given the doubts, that’s a lot of money to invest on either. And, unlike the betting markets, their fantasy prices haven’t altered due to the doubts. Hideki Matsuyama (19M) has a feast or famine record at Sawgrass in the last six years: fifth, sixth and eighth mixed in with three missed cuts. His irons haven’t looked sharp in the last two starts it has to be said. Si Woo Kim (18.6M) was a shock winner here in 2017 and has finished sixth and ninth since. It would be no shock to see him contend again this year though after five top 15s already this season, including second, third and sixth.
Mid-Range Value Selections (14.2M up to 18M)
Ludvig Aberg (17.4M) is on the rise again and his results and underlying numbers are getting better by the week. They shot up at Bay Hill last week where the Swede finished third. Stats-wise he was 2nd Tee To Green, 2nd for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for Approach. Add to that an eighth place on his Players debut in 2024 when he carded a trio of 5-under 67s.
Min Woo Lee (15M). The head says Lee is perhaps a little erratic to flourish here. But the Aussie admits he loves TPC Sawgrass and his results back it up. Lee has made all three cuts and has finishes of sixth and 20th. Twice he’s shot 66. Hopes are even higher this time given his current form of 6-12-2, excellent approach play and much straighter driving.
Others to consider: Sepp Straka (15.2M) has been one of the most reliable Sawgrass performers around in the last four years; he’s made every cut and finished in the top 16 three times. He returns with a second place and two other top 20s from his latest four outings. Jake Knapp (15.2M) had outstanding 2026 form of 11-5-8-8-6 before pulling out last week. It was originally reported as an illness but it’s emerged the WD was due to a back issue. That’s a slight concern although his recent play and 12th last year point to a high ceiling. Brooks Koepka (15.6M) didn’t do much on his first two starts after returning to the PGA Tour with much fanfare. But back in his native Florida and on Bermuda greens, he flourished again with ninth at the Cognizant last time (positive SG: Putting figures). It’s going back a while but he has an 11th and a 16th in two of his last four Players Championship starts. Adam Scott (14.6M) is making his 24th appearance and one of those resulted in a win way back in 2004. Fuelled by improved putting (11th and 6th for SGP in his last two events), the Aussie feels his game is in good shape and it’s showing in his results: 11-4-30-24. Aaron Rai (14.4M) lives just five minutes away after making Florida home a few years ago and his game really matches up well with Sawgrass where he practises. The Englishman has course form of 14-35-19 and current form of 23-28. He was a winner at the Abu Dhabi Championship in November. Daniel Berger (14.2M) got pipped at Bay Hill after leading for almost the entire week but he’s 7-for-7 here since 2016 and has reeled off three straight top 20s at Sawgrass.
Underdog Options (14M and Under)
Sahith Theegala (14M) was mentioned as an Underdog (UD) candidate last week and he came up trumps by finishing sixth. That was his third top 10 of the season and he has two other top 25s so his revival after an injury-hit 2025 has been impressive. Theegala has made his last three cuts at Sawgrass and was ninth in the middle of those. Once again, he’s a leading UD contender.
Keith Mitchell (14M) has made his last 10 cuts on the PGA Tour and four of those are top 20s. The most recent was sixth at the Cognizant earlier this month. His Approach numbers are strong and suggest he could challenge or improve upon his best Players finish of 13th. He’s missed just one cut at Sawgrass in the last four years.
Others to consider: Denny McCarthy (13.8M) doesn’t seem an ideal course fit but the proof is in the pudding and he’s made all six of his Sawgrass starts. Not only that, two of the last three were top 15s. He missed the cut at Bay Hill last time, the first time he’s failed to make the weekend all season (McCarthy’s best 2026 finish is only 40th however). Jordan Smith (13.6M) ranks 1st for Ball Striking this season so should enjoy his tournament debut. He’s taken well to life on the PGA Tour, making four cuts out of five and posting 16th (Phoenix) and 23rd (Cognizant) in his last two starts. Bud Cauley (13.2M) played well in Florida last year (sixth here and fourth at the Valspar) and enjoyed his return to the Sunshine State with 18th at Bay Hill last week. Ryan Fox (13M) made it four straight top 25s with 24th at Bay Hill and two of his three Sawgrass starts have yielded 20th and 27th. If you want a bargain buy who keeps making cuts, try Zecheng Dou (12M). The debutant’s 6-for-6 slate this season includes 13th in Phoenix and 17th at the Cognizant and he’s 10th for SG: Approach this season. Finally, I can’t leave out Tom Hoge (14M) given his third places in both 2023 and 2025. He’s also made every Players cut since 2019 but three MCs in the last four weeks is a concern even if he delivered 14th at Pebble (the scene of his only PGA Tour win) during that run.
That’s this week in the books from a fantasy perspective.
Now to check out the revamped and much-boosted FanTeam Sportsbook.
Let’s have a couple of bets too.
Last week’s 72-hole match bet landed again with Cameron Young (third) beating Si Woo Kim (13th).
This week I’ll take Daniel Berger to beat Jordan Spieth at 1.80.
Spieth has played some decent golf lately but Sawgrass gets in his head. In his last 10 visits, he’s missed the cut in half of them and managed just one finish better than 40th (19th in 2023).
In terms of this match bet at Sawgrass, had you placed it every year Berger would have won it seven times out of eight and by a comfortable margin in plenty of those.
As for my second play, I’ll take a chance on Shane Lowry to be Top Irish at 2.95.
He has two rivals: Rory McIlroy and Seamus Power.
Obviously McIlroy is the defending champion but in the previous four editions of this event, Lowry outscored Rory in three of them and tied with him in the other.
Add in McIlroy’s bad back and Lowry could cash in.
Power, who missed the cut in Puerto Rico last week, has form here in the last three years of MC-64-MC.
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