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There’s very much a Big Three in this week’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in North Carolina – the second major of the season.
So, here’s a question: Which of Scottie Scheffler (26.2M), Rory McIlroy (24.4M) and Bryson DeChambeau (23M) can you squeeze into your line-ups?
One? Two? Or perhaps none!
It’s impossible to get all three on board as that would blow too much of a hole in the 100M budget.
Strategy is always key but somehow it seems even more enhanced this week given the disparity in pricing.
With the UD (underdog) scoring x1.25pts (as does the captain), is it best to select a balanced team perhaps led by Justin Thomas?
We’ll get into it shortly but first…
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Top Tier Picks (18m and over)
Bryson DeChambeau (23M): I’m going to make DeChambeau the cornerstone of my line-up. For a start, he’s 3.2M cheaper than Scheffler but even if there was more parity I’d be backing Bryson. The course is set to play super-long after rain in the build-up, he’s coming off his best ever Masters (fifth) followed by a win on LIV and in this event the Californian has a second (last year) and two fourths in his last four appearances. It’s all systems go for a huge week.
Justin Thomas (20M): From the top end, Thomas is my other big like although he’s far from cheap, touching the 20M mark. JT won the 2017 PGA here at Quail Hollow which is a huge plus even though the course conditions were different in August. Secondly, he’s an absolute form horse after a win (RBC Heritage) and a second (Truist) on his last two starts. A two-time winner of this event, he walks taller in PGAs than he does at The Masters.
Others to consider: Xander Schauffele (21.6M) I’m expecting a good defence by Schauffele, especially as he’s finished runner-up at Quail Hollow in the last two editions of the Wells Fargo. He’s an absolute stud in majors with 16 top 10s in 31 played and the 2024 double major winner reeled off another with eighth at Augusta. Joaquin Niemann (19.2M) has zero top 10s in majors but he’s a prolific winner on LIV and his big hitting should serve him well. And it’s impossible not to mention four-time course winner and new Masters champ Rory McIlroy (24.4M). He’ll be massively popular so if you have the guts to leave him out and he doesn’t fire on all cylinders, it could pay off to give him a swerve. Alternatively, build everything around him!
Mid-Range Value Selections ($14.2m up to 18m)
Tyrrell Hatton (18M): Hatton was third at Quail Hollow when he last played it (2023 Wells Fargo) and his strong driving hints at another big week. He’s ticking along nicely on LIV and contended at Augusta before dropping back and finishing 14th. He posted two early top 10s in his PGA Championship career and has a further two top 15s in the last three. Hatton has made 12 of his last 13 cuts in the majors so is reliable too.
Corey Conners (16.6M): The ‘need to be a huge hitter’ narrative seems to go against Conners but he’s got an excellent record on long courses as shown by eighth at The Masters. That was his fourth top 10 in his last six trips to Augusta. The Canadian brings elite driving and plenty of excellent current form to the table too with six top 20s in his last seven starts. Five of those were T11 or better. He’s also posted 12th, 17th and 26th in three of the last four PGAs and 13th and 8th in the last two Wells Fargos at Quail Hollow.
Others to consider: Patrick Reed (16.2M) was third at Augusta last month, runner-up here in the 2017 PGA and is reeling off good finishes on LIV. Making 19 cuts in his last 20 Majors is outstanding too. Tony Finau (14.8M) is coming back to form and posted 15th in last week’s Truist. He’s sprinkled 11 top 10s in his majors career (for reference Patrick Cantlay has just three). Could big-hitting Ryan Fox (15.8M) make an impact after chipping in to win his first PGA Tour event last week? The Kiwi is reliable at this level having made the weekend in each of the last eight majors. Max Homa (15.2M) is finding his groove again (12th Augusta, 30th Truist) and that could be interesting timing given that he’s a former Quail Hollow winner with a pair of eighths in the last two runnings of the Wells Fargo. If looking for event reliability, Masters runner-up Justin Rose (16M) is the only man in the field to make the top 15 in each of the last six PGAs. Four of those were top 10s.
Underdog Options (14m and Under)
Dean Burmester (13.8M): The South African may be flickering on a few radars due to being a massive hitter. But he’s also become a pretty handy player in the majors in the last few years. He’s made the cut in his last five and that run includes 11th and 19th in the Open Championship and 12th in this event last year. Burmester, a runner-up at the LIV Golf Hong Kong in March, was 13th in the LIV Golf Korea event last time.
Harris English (13.6M): English isn’t the longest driver but won at very lengthy Torrey Pines earlier this year so plays big courses well. Majors-wise, he’s had a third, a fourth and an eighth in the last five US Opens, a pair of top 20s in his last four PGAs while 12th at Augusta last month was his best ever Masters finish. Add in third at Quail Hollow in the 2023 Wells Fargo and 11th at the Truist last week and there’s lots to like. A potential bargain and strong UD candidate.
Others to consider: Rasmus Hojgaard (13.2M) ranks 8th for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour this year. The Dane’s 67 at Augusta was the second best Friday score and he can kick on from that T32. Hojgaard has made two of his three PGA Championship cuts. Kurt Kitayama (12.4M) is another who smashes it ludicrous lengths. A shock winner at Bay Hill a couple of years ago, he was fourth in the 2023 PGA and 26th last year. A fifth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last time out also bodes well. Keith Mitchell (12.4M) is the king of fast starts (three first-round leads in his latest six events) and 11th in DD this season makes him a good course fit, backed up by third and eighth in two of his last three visits to Quail Hollow. He’s not done much in majors but has made it to the weekend in three of his last four PGAs. If looking below 12M, Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra (11.6M) is an option. The 25-year-old Spaniard left LIV after three years and then won the DP World Tour’s Indian Open a couple of months ago, following it with a fourth in the China Open. He played college golf at nearby Wake Forest. If feeling sentimental, Phil Mickelson (10.8M) won the 2021 PGA in his fifties and was runner-up in the 2023 Masters. He’s got numerous top 10s at Quail Hollow but they’re going back a bit.
A quick word on these. There are 10 tournament head-to-heads listed and you can pick three or more of these duels in an acca.
For those listed, I’d take Tony Finau to beat Davis Thompson, Joaquinn Niemann to beat Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm to beat Collin Morikawa.
A £10 stake on those pays £60 if successful and it landed in last week’s column. Get all 10 right (and you can even throw in football player head-to-heads if struggling to pick 10 golfers) and you’ll win 500x your stake!
Yes, there’s a Sportsbook too, covering golf, football, tennis, NBA etc.
It’s a win only market and I just missed out with 33/1 Shane Lowry last week.
For Quail Hollow, I’m going in for Bryson DeChambeau at 8/1, with Justin Thomas at 16/1 as my second pick.
That’s this week in the books. Don’t forget to SIGN UP HERE
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DaveTindall365 